The Houston Astros pulled off a pair of very significant trades this offseason — both involving the Chicago Cubs. Houston traded away Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly. But there were also some Astros rumors linking Framber Valdez (briefly) to the trade market and the Astros have been involved in an on again/ off again courtship with St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Fans know the story by now. The Astros tried to trade Arenado, he vetoed the deal, and then Houston circled back but have yet to find common ground. Suffice it to say that this plan of action has recieved mixed reviews.
For the moment, trading for Arenado seems extremely unlikely and probably unnecessary. However, Bleacher Report recently floated a potential Astros trade acquisition that actually addresses a position of need. Chicago White Sox star Luis Robert Jr. would fill a need, but such a deal would come with a ton of risk and is far from even being on the table this season.
Astros trade for White Sox OF Luis Robert Jr. could propel Houston to greatness, but also be their downfall
The Astros’ outfield is, at best, in the middle of a pretty big transition. Tucker is gone, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are coming off down-years, and Houston is hoping that Jose Altuve acclimates to playing left field. A young, tooled-up player like Robert has obvious appeal, especially when compared to a declining, aging, and expensive veteran like Arenado.
LUIS ROBERT JR. FOR THE FIRST HOME RUN OF THE SEASON 🔥 pic.twitter.com/IQFNrVOT4W
— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) March 30, 2024
But Robert comes with his own set of risks. In addition to making $15 million in 2025 with a pair of $20 million club-options for 2026 and 2027, Robert has a troubling injury history and is coming off a season in which he posted an anemic .657 OPS. The White Sox are reportedly asking for a king’s ransom in exchange for Robert, and that type of deal may be too risky for Houston.
The Astros are in a uniquely difficult spot when it comes to any trade for a high variance guy like Robert. Houston is close to maxed out in terms of payroll and would likely prefer to give contract extensions to players like Framber Valdez or Yainer Diaz.
Trading for Robert implies that Houston would want to pick the club-options which would create another roster squeeze. Combine that with an Astros farm system that is extremely shallow in terms of talent and you have the makings of a situation where Houston could mortgage their future for a player who’s the equivalent of a bag of magic beans.
It is pretty clear that any Robert trade isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Chicago is going to want the former All-Star to rebuild his value, and no team is going to pony up Robert until he proves that he’s healthy. However, even if he returns to form and the Astros find themselves in need of an outfielder at the trade deadline, Houston must proceed with caution.