The Baltimore Orioles surprised the baseball world in 2023 when they rattled off 101 wins and took advantage of a down year from the New York Yankees to win the American League East division.
It was seen as Baltimore’s arrival as a new perennial contender led by its loaded young core, but in the two postseasons since, the Orioles have not won a single series.
The team is looking to change all of that this year, but as for the regular season, the stars could be aligning for Baltimore to earn its second division crown in three seasons.
A rash of spring training injuries has the reigning champion Yankees looking vulnerable, and despite improvements for the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, it is the Orioles who remain the most well-positioned to capitalize.
MLB.com’s Will Leitch thinks so, too, as he tabbed Baltimore as his predicted AL East champion in an article predicting every playoff team.
“The struggles of Adley Rutschman and company down the stretch in 2024 made everybody forget the fundamental truth about the Orioles: They’re stacked with young hitters,” Leitch wrote. “Hitter maturation is not linear, sure, but would you be surprised if Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday were all better (perhaps substantially so) than they were last year? I wouldn’t be.”
Leitch is far from alone in seeing the bad news coming out of New York as an opportunity for Baltimore. Even statistical models now peg the Orioles as the team to beat in the division.
PECOTA’s latest updated projections, which factor in Cole’s injury, have the Orioles three games clear of the Yankees at an average of 88.2 wins with a 39% chance to take the division. The Toronto Blue Jays are right on New York’s heels at 85.1 wins, but Tampa Bay and Boston are well behind at 82.3 and 79.8, respectively.
While the Yankees have lost Cole for the year, Baltimore is also set to start the season without its own ace, and the club will need Grayson Rodriguez to return to health and good form as soon as possible to help lead the rotation.
The return of closer Felix Bautista from injury will allow him to re-create a potent one-two punch out of the bullpen with Yennier Cano, and Andrew Kittredge will eventually join the relief mix when he returns from injury.
But while the pitching staff has its question marks, it is the offense that will determine whether this team lives up to its potential or not. The talent is there in spades, and the Orioles’ young hitters simply need to go out there and produce from the jump.