I know it’s just a three-inning sample in spring training, but after watching him pitch against the Cleveland Guardians on Monday, I do think it’s fair to have some concern about starting pitcher Luis Castillo as the regular season gets underway in three weeks.
Now, I don’t want to sound fatalistic: I’m not saying that Castillo is all of a sudden going to bottom out for the Seattle Mariners. He’s still going to be good, and he’ll have games where he looks quite good, but the signs of regression are real.
As Nick Pollack of PitcherList first pointed out in January, Castillo’s fastball velocity continues to drop, as does his swinging strike rate. When that happens, you’ll go deeper into counts, pitch less efficiently, have a harder time putting someone away, give up more contact, and give up harder contact.
That was evidenced on Monday, as Castillo gave up two home runs against Cleveland, a roped single, and some additionally loud outs. Some days that loud contact will find gloves, and some times it won’t. It’s just the reality of the situation now.
Where the Mariners have the benefit is here: They don’t need Castillo to be the dominant force they acquired in 2022. They just need him to be the best No. 3, 4 or pitcher in the league, and he absolutely can hit that ceiling. As long as Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo continue to evolve and ascend, they should be able to cover for a little Castillo regression. It will also be interesting to see how Castillo adjusts to these trends moving forward.
The M’s still have one of the best staffs in all of baseball, but the pecking order looks a little different now.