The Mets’ rotation heading into 2025 is riddled with uncertainty. While they have some intriguing arms, the potential of converting Clay Holmes from a dominant bullpen piece to a reliable starter carries significant risk. Holmes has never consistently handled a starter’s workload, and while the concept is creative, banking on such an experiment without backup feels precarious. To stabilize their rotation, the Mets might need to turn to free agency, where a high-upside arm like Nick Pivetta could provide a solution.
Why Nick Pivetta Makes Sense
Pivetta has flown under the radar as a quality starting pitcher, and his 2024 numbers suggest he could be a diamond in the rough.
Over 145.2 innings, he posted a 4.14 ERA but a more encouraging 3.51 xERA, signaling he was the victim of some bad luck. Pivetta struck out 10.63 batters per nine innings, a testament to his swing-and-miss potential, and held opposing hitters to a .224 average against his sweeper and an impressive .167 against his curveball. His four-seam fastball wasn’t far behind, limiting batters to a .239 clip.
The right-hander’s primary three-pitch mix of a fastball, sweeper, and curveball gives him the tools to excel. His decent fastball velocity, paired with the movement of his secondary offerings, keeps hitters off-balance. Pivetta’s slider, in particular, has shown elite qualities, and his ability to generate whiffs could elevate him into a dependable mid-rotation arm.
A Reasonable Investment
Free agency projections peg Pivetta’s contract at three years, $45 million, averaging $15 million per season. For a team like the Mets, who need another layer of stability in their rotation, this deal seems reasonable. Pivetta’s numbers suggest he’s capable of eating innings while providing above-average production. His career has had its ups and downs, but his recent trends point to a pitcher figuring out how to maximize his strengths.
Mitigating Risk While Adding Upside
With Holmes representing a roll of the dice as a starter and the rest of the rotation carrying its own question marks, the Mets would be wise to bring in someone like Pivetta to shore things up. He may not be a headline-grabbing name, but he’s the type of addition that could prove pivotal over a 162-game season. With his ability to miss bats and his underlying metrics pointing to untapped potential, Pivetta could quietly become one of the most reliable pieces in a Mets rotation that desperately needs it.
Given the Mets’ lofty expectations, adding a starter with Pivetta’s profile is the kind of calculated move that ensures they aren’t caught short when the inevitable challenges of a long season arise.